The world’s largest political-risk consultancy, Eurasia Group, has said that the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari will win the February 16 presidential election.
In its final Eurasia Group Politics First election forecast, the group, which was founded in 1998 by American political scientist Ian Bremmer, said Buhari has a 60 percent probability chance to win, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks.
“Opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks, but President Muhammadu Buhari remains favored to win (a 60% probability),” the group said.
“On election day, the ruling All Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) significantly greater control of local political structures and resources—it governs 23 states compared to the opposition’s 12—will boost voter mobilization and solidify Buhari’s advantage,” the group added.
Concise News had reported that International magazine the Economist has maintained its earlier prediction that the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, will win the February 16 presidential election.
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Africa on Friday, February 1, said the margin of victory is getting narrower as the election approaches, but Atiku and his political party will win the historic election.
EIU Africa tweeted: “#NigeriaDecides2019 : Less than 2 weeks before #Nigeria‘s presidential election. Abubakar has floated idea of corruption amnesty. It is arguably an impolitic time for such a delicate proposal.
“Abubakar is hard-pressed to convince voters that he is a clean politician, having been on the receiving end of numerous graft allegations in the past.
“We retain out forecast for #Abubakar to win, but expected margin of victory is narrowing as the poll approaches.”
Just like it is predicting victory for Atiku now, the magazine also in 2015 predicted victory for Muhammadu Buhari over then-incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, stating that Buhari was “the least awful choice,” which would be chosen “with a heavy heart”.
“Voters have ample cause to send Mr Jonathan packing. In a country where power has often changed through the barrel of a gun, the opposition All Progressives Congress has a real chance of winning through the ballot box,” The Economist said in 2015.
Then in 2018, research unit of London-based The Economist Magazine had said that the PDP will win the 2019 election.
“Abubakar’s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms. Both candidates are from the northern Nigeria, where Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest there,” EIU had said.
“With the vote likely to be split in the North, Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP.
“This gives Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.”